"Terrorism risk in individual nations across the world is impacted directly by the level of political freedom in those countries. That is the finding of a new study* produced by Alberto Abadie, associate professor of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government," according to a KSG press release:
Abadie’s analysis indicates that political freedom, and not economic development as is often conjectured, is significantly associated with terrorism. However, the relationship between terrorism and political freedom is not a simple one. Countries with intermediate levels of political freedom (anocracies) are more prone to terrorism than nations with high levels of political freedom or nations with highly authoritarian regimes. This result suggests that, as experienced currently in Iraq and previously in Spain and Russia, nations in political transition – where government is weak and instability is elevated – may experience temporary increases in terrorism.
Abadie’s study utilizes risk-rating data gleaned from international risk ratings agencies to measure terrorism risk. “Previous studies used the U.S. State Department database on international terrorist incidents to measure terrorist risk at the country level. However, for most countries, domestic terrorism is much more important than international terrorism. Terrorist risk ratings are useful to measure the overall level of terrorism risk, both domestic and of foreign origin,” Abadie explains.
Sort of like the stockmarket. Good news or bad news, national stability abhors uncertainty.
*The study is available on the Kennedy School Working Papers website.
Comments