Is it written?

"Arab-Americans, one of the United States' smallest ethnic minorities, could well tip the balance against President George W Bush's re-election, according to a survey released on Wednesday of four key battleground states where the vote could be decided," reports the Asia Times:

The poll, conducted by Zogby International for the Washington-based Arab American Institute (AAI), found that if current opinions hold through November, when the election takes place, Bush could suffer a net loss of one-third (170,000) of Arab-American votes in [Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania] compared with the 2000 elections, when he won a solid plurality of those votes.

Reflecting the national Arab-American population, about two-thirds of respondents were either Catholic or Orthodox, about one-quarter were Muslim and the remainder were Protestant. Most Arab-Americans are of Lebanese descent.

We hadn't had any idea that only a quarter of Arab-Americans were Muslim.  Interestingly, support for Kerry was highest among immigrant Arab-Americans as opposed to Arab-Americans born in the U.S.  As far as issues, the concerns of Arab-Americans as a group mirror those of the U.S. electorate as a whole:  economy, health care, terrorism/national security, education, foreign policy and Iraq in that order. 

But, unlike most of the rest of the electorate, nearly three-quarters of Arab-American voters ranked "Israel-Palestine" as an issue that would figure "very importantly" in their choice.

In 2000, Bush, whose outspoken opposition to ethnic profiling of Arabs and Muslims gained him many votes among the two groups, beat Gore among Arab-American voters in the four states by 46 percent to 29 percent, with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who is of Christian Lebanese descent, receiving 16 percent. But according to the latest poll, Kerry is in a position to flip these results completely and would beat Bush 45 percent to 28 percent, with Nader currently running at 13 percent.

As for the President's possibly making up for Arab-American losses with Jewish gains,

"It's hard for me to see any significant gain for President Bush among Jewish voters," Zogby told journalists. The latest poll "offers evidence that any gains [he makes among Jewish voters] may be canceled out by significant losses among Arab-American voters.

We always felt uneasy re GW's attempts to tamp down the fires of anti-Arab-American bigotry post 9/11.  The impulse was on the side of the angels, but he failed to make the case. Perhaps more importantly, his steadfast support of Israel can't have gone down well with Arab-Americans for whom "Israel-Palestine" continues to be an important issue. We are somehow reminded of screenwriter Robert Bolt's words spoken by Anthony Quinn's bedouin chief Auda Abu Tayi when a man whom Lawrence of Arabia had rescued from the desert was shortly thereafter shot dead in a scuffle:

Ah, it was written, then.

[via Thomas at The American Thinker]

Update:  Reader Bob jogs our faulty memory with what actually happened in that scene in Lawrence of Arabia:

It was the man Lawrence rescued who murdered someone in a scuffle. As the man in charge, it fell to Peter O'Toole's Lawrence to administer justice. He therefore grudgingly executes with a pistol the man he had so recently rescued from the desert, thus: "it was written, then."

SO much better, peeling back the layers of Lawrence's character with efficiency and wit:

Lawrence: I have no tribe and no one is offended.

Ali: It was execution, Aurens: no shame in that. Besides, it was necessary. You gave life and you took it. The writing is still yours.

Comments

[Bob]

A small correction about the scene from Lawrence of Arabia: if memory serves, it was the man Lawrence rescued who murdered someone in a scuffle. As the man in charge, it fell to Peter O'Toole's Lawrence to administer justice. He therefore grudgingly executes with a pistol the man he had so recently rescued from the desert, thus: "it was written, then."

[CoolBlue]

For a different view, check this out:

http://coolblue.typepad.com/the_cool_blue_blog/2004/04/muslims_for_bus.html

[Sissy Willis]

Thanks, Bob, for jogging my memory. I've added your correction to the post.